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IMAGERY ANALYSIS REPORT 19 APRIL 1993 Prepared for the US District Court for the Western District of Texas By Vector Data Systems, an Anteon Company
On 9 September 1999 the Attorney General of the United States of America appointed Senator John C. Danforth to investigate certain events that occurred at the Mt. Carmel Compound in Waco, Texas, on 19 April 1993. Immediately after his appointment, Senator Danforth established the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) to carry out this investigation. On 2 Dec. 99, VDS (UK) was engaged by the OSC and the US District court for the Western District of Texas to review FLIR imagery taken by an FBI Night Stalker aircraft flying over the Mount Carmel compound on 19 April 1993. VDS (UK) Was tasked to determine:
To address these points, VDS (UK) has:
VDS (UK) received a report1 originated by the Davidian experts. study of the FLIR imagery, alleging:
In addition to these 37 reported instances, VDS (UK) then identified a further 20 instances of similar anomalous thermal activity. Our following report provides analysis of these 57 events. Detailed exploitation of the FLIR imagery, together with comparative analysis of the collateral imagery, and of muzzle flash and debris reflection identified during the FLIR trial leads us to the following conclusions:
From the information available to VDS (UK), we have concluded that the 57 thermal events, including the alleged sighting of a person, are all caused by Passive Specular Solar Reflection, Active Thermal Reflection or movement of debris. Our report provides illustrations identifying the causes of these thermal events. Our determination of the first outbreak of fire indicated on the FLIR imagery is at 12:07:43 on the second floor of the Red/White corner. A near simultaneous outbreak occurs at 12:08:26 at the cafeteria/kitchen entrance. Our report provides illustrations of the outbreaks of fire. Our conclusion is that throughout the morning of 19 April 1993, no persons are seen on imagery until 12:10:50; thereafter numerous personnel (assumed to be Government personnel by their actions) attend the fire.
This report was compiled by staff of Vector Data Systems (UK) Ltd (VDS (UK). VDS (UK) is a UK-registered, majority-owned subsidiary of Vector Data Systems Inc (VDS Inc) and is located in Peterborough, England from where it operates primarily in support of UK Ministry of Defence Requirements. The company specialises in providing imagery exploitation ground stations, imagery software and imagery training and consultancy services. The operational and executive control of all VDS (UK) activities is vested in the UK staff, all of whom are UK nationals. VDS (UK) has not previously been under a direct contract to the US government. In 1997, VDS Inc., Alexandria, Va., was acquired by the Anteon Corporation. The lead VDS (UK) analyst for this report was Daniel David Oxlee, supported by Nick Evans and Peter Ayres. Biographies for these members of staff are at Attachment 1. On 9th September 1999, the Attorney General of the United States appointed Senator John C. Danforth to investigate certain event that occurred at the Mount Carmel compound in Waco, Texas on 19th April 1993. Immediately after his appointment, Senator Danforth established the OSC to carry out this investigation. On 2nd December 1999, VDS (UK) was retained by the OSC to analyse and interpret airborne Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) imaged by the FBI using a Night Stalker aircraft flying AN ORBIT ABOVE THE Mount Carmel compound on 19 April 1993. No member of staff at VDS (UK) has any connection with any of the parties, witnesses or advisers involved in this case. The examination of imagery evidence took place at VDS (UK) premises at Newark Road, Peterborough England from 4 January until 5 May 2000. We viewed the FLIR videos using a video recorder with a frame-by-frame viewing capability. This procedure allowed us to observe individuals frames at length and to familiarise ourselves fully with the events that took place. We also digitised the FLIR tapes to enable us to use a variety of digital techniques to view, analyse and compare data using the software tools detailed at Para 2.7. We selected the most appropriate FLIR images of each event in order to determine significant features regarding the Shape, Size, Shadow and Associated Features of the object and its background. Most importantly, we studied the Tonal Ranges of both object and background in terms of ground resolution and thermal discrimination. Having identified 57 specific instances of potential thermal activity requiring detailed examination, we then undertook a comparative assessment (one event with another) where those events looked similar with regard to sun angle/sensor aspect. It is important to note that we used all of the available FLIR imagery in making the comparison and not only the frames that have been selected for illustrations in this report. We then reviewed all the available collateral imagery (ground & air) and conducted comparative analysis with the FLIR, using a variety of softcopy exploitation techniques, in order to reach an interim assessment. Where possible, we used imagery of similar scale and viewpoint. Finally, and following the FLIR Trial held under our direction at Fort Hood on 19th March 2000 (Attachment 2), we compared results from that FLIR trial with our interim assessment to reach the final conclusions stated in this report. The imagery was exploited on our Desktop Imagery Exploitation Workstation (DIEWS) which includes the following commercially available software packages: Additionally, we utilised a SUN Ultra 2 workstation mounting DIEPS ä software and CrystalEyesä stereo viewing equipment to view individual frames in stereo, together with an Apple Mac workstation with miniCAD 7ä software to generate 3D drawings and support out mensuration. Report generation and desktop publishing was achieved using a suite of PCs using Microsoftä Paintshop Proä and Adobeä software. The accompanying interactive CD-ROM supporting illustrations were generated using General Dynamics Digital Video Analyser. & [note: the next sections, 2.7.1 through 2.7.3, describe use of a CD-ROM of video and still photos sent along with the report to the court and to the parties in the pending federal wrongful death case] All material used in the compilation of this report is itemised at Attachment 3. The information cut-off date was 10 April 2000. 3. THE MT. CARMEL COMPOUND Figure 1 (aerial photograph of the Mt. Camel complex, taken from above the front side of the building) illustrates the compound and is colour codes allocated in 1993 by the FBI. For ease of reference we have used these FBI colour codes to avoid confusion and for ease of cross-reference with reporting by other agencies. [The report then shows Figure 1, followed by Fig. 2 – schematic drawings of each side of the compound. The front of the building is labeled White side; the back is Black side, the left – nearest a metal water tower – is labeled Green side; and the red side is opposite that] 4. FLIR IMAGERY Four Night Stalker FLIR tapes covering the events at Mt Carmel on 19th April 1999 were viewed and assessed for interpretative quality using the Infrared Imagery Interpretation Rating Scale (IIRS), adopted as a standard by NATO, and included as Attachment 5.
FLIR Tape 1 covered the acknowledged time span when Government agents first attempted to displace Davidian personnel present within the compound. Although the tape was viewed throughout, obscuring cloud cover during virtually the whole of this imaging period reduced the overall IIRS rating of FLIR Tape 1 to IIRS 0-1. The FLIR operator had selected ``black-hot.. for most of the tape. An example of the best imagery from FLIR Tape 1 is at Figure 3. [note: Figure 3 is a single frame of infrared video] Flir Tape 2 is rated overall at IIRS 2, and again the operator had selected ``black-hot... This imagery was better than on FLIR Tape 1, due to improving weather conditions. Even so, the imagery lacked the potential to observe gunfire, although some military-type vehicle movement was visible. An example is the building penetration on the White side by CEV-1, that occurred at 09:11 hrs, depicted at Figure 4. [note: Figure 4 is a single frame of infrared video.] FLIR Tape 3 Is IIRS 6-7, notwithstanding the prolonged time interval since April 1993 and the numerous viewing of this analogue tape by the various parties prior to its dispatch to VDS (UK) in January 2000. FLIR TAPE 3 is an overall resolution sufficient to allow detailed analysis of some 15 instances of alleged2 Government gunfire, 3 alleged Flashbang detonations, 1 sighting of a person on the ground together with 18 instances of alleged Davidian gunfire. In addition to these 37 reported instance, VDS (UK) has identified a further 20 instances of similar anomalous thermal activity. This ``white-hot..tape shows the Compound as the fires rapidly spread. As a consequence, the radient energy threshold is such that the automatic gain control could not (apparently) produce a meaningful image for much of the time. Some terminology used in this report is, of necessity, specialist in nature and subject to national variation. However, in this report the term Passive refers to a return on the FLIR imagery that is the result of solar action, whilst the term Active indicates that the source of the emission stems from mankind (for example a running engine). Although Temperature is the dominant in determining the strength of a thermal return on FLIR, other factors such as the type of Material, the Surface Texture, the Slant Range from a target, and the Imaging Aspect must be considered during detailed imagery analysis. The majority of commonplace materials have the property to absorb and to subsequently re-emit radiant energy to varying degrees in the long-wave infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum. However, items such as glass and polished tend to act very poorly in this respect and display low Emissivity with consequent high Reflectivity. In the passive sense, the same materials can reflect mankind-derived energy to the sensor system, again given the right imaging aspect. The active effect is here termed Active Thermal Reflection (ATR). There is correlation between the location of the sensor, the sun angle and the recording of PSSR returns on the FLIR. As the aircraft orbits the Mt Carmel compound, certain PSSRs are imaged only when the sensor viewing aspect, sun and reflecting debris are in a specific correlation – we term this sensor viewing aspect the Sensor Zone of Regard.
6. PASSIVE SPECULAR SOLAR REFLECTIONS (PSSR) The FLIR trial results (Attachment 2) clearly identify PSSRs collected by the Lynx FLIRR in the 8-14 micron part of the electromagnetic spectrum. The following two events, recording by the Night Stalker FLIR on 19 April 93, act as an empirical example of PSSR, as described in the FLIR Trial report. 6.2 PSSRs At The Swimming Pool Master Event List VDS Serial 1. A number of flashes can be observed on the water at the deep end of the pool. The swimming pool flashes are the results of wave motion on the water in reflective line-of-sight with both the sun and the FLIR sensor, and are identified as PSSRs. There is a very bright return from an unidentified object at the edge of the pool that is assessed also to be PSSR. These flashes were not included within the Davidian allegation of weapons discharge, and yet they display very similar characteristics to the other series of flashes claimed to be gunfire, see Figure 5. Figure 5 - See CD ROM Video Clip # 1 (note: two images, one a still photo and the other a FLIR frame of the swimming pool on April 19, 1993) 6.3 PSSRs At The Storage Tank Master Event List VDS Serial 3. Two flashes can be seen on the FLIR (Figure 6) that are similar in all respects to the majority of those alleged to be gunfire elsewhere on FLIR Tape 3. These two flashes from the same spot result from what is believed to be a smooth metal plate (Figure 7, imaged prior to 19th April 1993) lying on ground in reflective line-of-sight with both the sun FLIR sensor, and are therefore identified as PSSRs. [note: figure 6 is a FLIR frame from April 19 and figure 7 is a still photo] These flashes are not observed at other times since the sun shadow, angularity, and the gap between nearby building and the storage tank are not replicated exactly elsewhere on the FLIR coverage. These flashes were not included within the Davidian allegations of weapon discharge, and yet they display very similar characteristics to the other series of flashes claimed by the Davidians to be gunfire. 7.1 FLIR Trial Results The FLIR trial results (Attachment 2) clearly identify ATRs collected by the Night Stalker FLIR in the 8-14 micron part of the electromagnetic spectrum. Figure 8, recorded by the Night Stalker FLIR during the 19 March 00 FLIR Trial illustrates an empirical example of ATR, as described in the FLIR Trial report. [note: figure 8 in a still FLIR frame} 7.2 ATR Example From 19 April 93 Figure 9 illustrates an ATR caused by the heat of the CEV engine reflected from debris on the ground during CEV operations at Mt Carmel. [note: figure 8 is a still FLIR frame] 8 MASTER EVENT LIST AND VDS (UK) ANALYSIS
9. ALLEGED BRANCH DAVIDIAN GUNFIRE VDS (UK) was not tasked to identify possible Davidian gunfire, but we have included the following analysis for completeness and comparative purposes and to establish the efficacy of the reflective infrared phenomena on 19 April 1993. Alleged Davidian gunfire was reported as emanating from three main areas – at or near rooftops at the White, Red and lack sides. [note: report includes a diagram illustrating the ``White side sensor zone of regard] 9.1 White Side Master Even Serials 25,26,29,34,36,39,40,41,42,43 & 46 These thermal events are only apparent when the aircraft is imaging within the nominated Sensor Zone of Regard, when line-of-sight reflectivity is fleetingly met. Thus on Tape 3, no alleged Davidian gunfire is observed from (or near) this roof at any other time, even though the roof has been imaged at different angles. At least one flash occurs on 23 differently timed occasions. These 23 flashes span some 26 minutes in time and occur only when the sensor is in the same position with regard to the sun and to the roof in question. It is also noteworthy that this roof provides a consistent tonal background on which to observe a thermal return. Moreover, there is a clear correlation between debris on the roof and the thermal flashes, illustrated in the following series of FLIR images, Figures 10-15, compared with the optical colour images. [Note: Figure 10 is a series of 4 FLIR frames and 1 still color photo of the compound. ] As in figure 10, there is a clear correlation between glint from the optical image and from the PSSRs on the FLIR imagery at the diverse times illustrated. Yet again, debris on the ground also falls into the Sensor Zone of Regard and therefore the PSSRs are recorded. [Note: Figure 11 is a series of two FLIR frames and one still color photo] Figure 12 illustrates that the point of origin of the flashes is on the roof in all cases, and not from a nearby window, as alleged. [Note: Figure 12 and Figure 13 are each is a series of 4 FLIR frames and 1 still color photo of the compound] The developing shape of each flash is consistent with a PSSR and is without the directional properties associated with gunfire. Moreover, the duration of the flashes is excessive for gunfire. [Note: Figure 14 is a series of four FLIR frames and 1 still color photo of the compound. Figure 15 is a series of three FLIR frames and one still color photo of the compound] Figure 16 illustrates the remaining event on White side (VDS 42) which is the `flash – that occurs when the CEV penetrates the Main Door. As the CEV withdraws, it pulls out some debris that produces a PSSR. [Note: Figure 15 is a FLIR frame} 9.2 Red Side This group of events is described under two sub headings. The first concerns damage to a window and its surrounding wall, and the second part the alleged gunfire from the Chapel roof.
Master Event Serials 2,4 & 24 Three observable flashes occur from within the damaged area on different occasions. These flashes span some 48 minutes in time overall. The colour illustration at Figure 37 depicts reflecting material within the debris. As with the White side events, these flashes are only apparent when the sensor is at the same approximate position to the Sun. However, in this case, the Sun is behind the sensor each time. The FLIR images at Figures 17 and 18 illustrate a PSSR from the same material at the same point (red arrow). [Note: Figures 17 and 18 are each two sets of FLIR frames] Note also the consistently cold return from one of the upper windows, which is believed to feature a metal blind. More importantly, there is also an ATR from within the room at the lower left (red oval). This room is in the vicinity of the subsequent fire, which is discussed in Section 11.
Master Event Serials 10, 11, 21, & 45 {Note: diagram that follows shows Sensor Zone of Regard on Red side chapel roof] At least three thermal flashes occur from this location, each time when the sensor is in the appropriate Zone of Regard. As with the White side roof, there is correlation with glas debris on the roof (Figure 19). [Note: Figure 19 consists of still frame from video taken of ATF raid at Mt. Carmel on Feb. 28, 1993, and a second overhead color photo of the compound] Analysis of all available imagery illustrates a correlation between shards of window glass deposited on the Chapel roof during the original ATF raid and the PSSRs on the FLIR. Moreover, the following sequence of four FLIR images at Figure 20 (VDS 10) illustrates the PSSR expanding and contracting between consecutive video frames. [Note: figure 20 is a series of four FLIR frames taken at 12:25:02] Figure 21 illustrates a similar correlation elsewhere on the roof, two seconds after VDS 10 at 11:25:04 (VDS 11) and also at 11:34:45 (VDS 21). [Note: Figure 21 is a series of two FLIR frame] Figure 22 illustrates the return from amongst debris on the ground at 12:01:06 (VDS 45). [Note: Figure 22 is a single FLIR frame] Master Event Serials 9, 4, 15, 17, 20, 27, 28, 30, 32, 33,35,37 & 38 [Note: diagram illustrates black side roof sensor zone of regard] Returns from this debris-strewn roof show the greatest number of flashes on FLIR Tape 3 at any particular location and cover a 26-minute period in time. Again, there is discernible correlation between debris and PSSR flashes. Of significance, our analysis indicates that the flashes are not emanating from the windows as alleged in some instances, rather from debris strewn on the roof – see Figures 23 and 24. [Note: Figure 23 is a set of two still color photos of the rear roof of the compound. Figure 24 is a series of four FLIR frames] The following sequence also serves to refute the Davidian ``gun wad.. claim since it can be seen from the following three sequential images that the supposed ``gun wad.. (Figure 25, red arrow) precedes the alleged gun flash (Figure 26, yellow arrow). It is also apparent, through the use of stereoscopic techniques, that the alleged gun flash, emanated from PSSR from the roof and not from the window. [Note: Figure 25 is a series of 3 FLIR frames taken at 11:30:26] As with all of the sightings on the Cafeteria roof, Figures 26 and 27 reinforce random flash dispersal from PSSRs that match with debris distribution. Once again, the shape, size, distribution, and the flash duration are commensurate with PSSRs from random debris. [Note: Figure 26 is a series of six FLIR frames. Figure 27 is two FLIR frames and one color still photo. ] The three FLIR images at Figure 28 demonstrate the pulsating, non-directional nature of the flashes. [Note: Figure 28 is a series of three FLIR frames recorded at 11:48, 15, listed as VDS 35} 9.4.2 Residential Tower Master Event Serials 28, 30, 33,37 & 38 On at least five occasions there is evidence of flash from the vicinity of the Residential Tower. These flashes were alleged to be gunfire from within the Tower, directed out through the windows. However, Figures 29 and 30 clearly show that the flashes emanate from debris on the ground at the base of the tower. [Note: Figure 29 is a set of four FLIR frame & one still color photo. Figure 30 is a set of two FLIR frames recorded at 11:50: 27 and 11:50:28] Figure 30 (VDS 38) also illustrates how the PSSR duration is too excessive to be gunfire.
10. ALLEGED GOVERNMENT GUNFIRE 10.1 Criteria For Gunfire 10.1.1 Muzzle Flash Flir Signatures Derived From FLIR Trial
10.12. Comparison of Identified Events With Criteria For Muzzle Flash FLIR signature Red X = Does not meet criteria Green Ö = Does meet criteria EVENT VDS (UK) Serial Essential Criteria for a Muzzle Flash FLIR signature
[Note: Figure 31 is a set of three FLIR frames and one color still photo. Figure 32 is a set of 3 FLIR frames recorded at 11:34:33] The sequence illustrated at Figure 32 was alleged to show a ``man.. running from the destroyed NE corner of the Gym to the Swimming Pool diving platform. Image enhancement reveals that the event is caused by wind blown debris. In order to illustrate the pulsating nature of PSSR flashes seen at VDS 31, Figure 33 is as sequential as possible and shows the flash as a point source, then expanding and contracting. [Note: Figure 33 is a set of six FLIR frames recorded at 11:46:34, VDS 31] Figure 34 illustrates VDS 51, caused by PSSR from other debris at a later sun angle. [Note: figure 34 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 12:08:50] Once the fire is established, the FLIR shows a number of ATRs from burning materials (arrowed), together with thermal reflections from low-emissivity materials. A number of these ATRs are illustrated below at Figure 35. [Note: Figure 35 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 12:11:19] This series of flashes in the Outer Courtyard have been correlated with previous PSSR event. However, this time (VDS 54) in the Inner Courtyard, the debris is producing an ATR from the Cafeteria – Figure 36. [Note: Figure 36 is a single FLIR frame, VDS 54] 10.3 Black Side Master Event Serials 5,6,7,8,12,22,23,44,50,52, & 53 [Note: diagram illustrates Black side Gymnasium, Courtyard & Lean-To Roof Sensor Zone of Regard. Figure 37 is a set of three FLIR frames and one still color aerial photograph of the a section of the compound] One of the more difficult events to resolve is VDS Serial 5. A flash is emitted from the left-rear of CEV-1 as it passes the right-hand end of the Gymnasium (Figure 37). It is alleged that the flash was caused by one of two options; either a weapon such as an M79 grenade launcher, or, alternatively, that an agent astride the rear of the CEV fired a shot. On the first option, analysis reveals that the flash originates from just forward of a box left of the engine that houses the gearing mechanism. The box is a standard item on all CEVs of this type. There is no firing port of any description in this vicinity. The turret was rotated to the trail position throughout the FLIR coverage, and the turret-mounted fixed smoke dischargers are thus facing rearward. It is not possible to fire either a gun or an M79 through fixed smoke dischargers. As to the second option, that an agent was astride the rear of the CEV in order to fire into the Gymnasium, this theory is not practicable. Examination of a CEV during the FLIR trial and subsequent detailed imagery analysis refutes the theory that a person would not lie or crouch in such proximity to the very hot CEV engine. Our analysis of the FLIR shows that there is no person on the exterior of the vehicle as it starts its journey to the Gymnasium; furthermore, no one climbs aboard during transit. Stereoscopic viewing indicates that the flash is omni-directional, unlike that of linear muzzle flash. On the imagery evidence, we conclude that the flash is the result of a PSSR from debris lodged near the box from a previous CEV intrusion into the buildings. The CEV is in the appropriate sensor Zone of Regard at the time of the flash. Figure 38 (VDS 6) illustrates the effect of falling debris as the CEV penetrates the Gym. [Note: Figure 38 is a FLIR frame recorded at 11:18:28 (VDS 6). Figure 39 is a single FLIR frame, (VDS 7)] Figure 39 is the first of a series that well illustrates the phenomena of an ATR, with the heat of the CEV engine reflected from debris material nearby when the CEV penetrates the Gymnasium. As with PSSRs, provided the essential angularity between object and sensor is present, then an ATR will be recorded. This phenomenon is the cause of the events illustrated at Figure 40, where the very hot engine of the moving CEV is reflected in the debris and imaged by the sensor as it obtains the requisite angularity. [Note: Figure 40 is a series of 12 FLIR frames, recorded between 12:24:30 and 12:24:32] The ATR effect was well demonstrated at the FLIR trial, and is readily apparent here when the CEV is travelling to, and also from, the Gymnasium (Figure 41). [Note: Figure 41 is a set of two FLIR frames recorded at 11:26:27 and a still aerial color photo of a section of the compound] Figure 42 (VDS 23) is a good example of a PSSR that becomes more obvious when viewed stereoscopically when it can be seen that the dark tone material is debris. [Note: Figure 42 is a set of two FLIR frames recorded at 11:38:16] The flash illustrated at Figure 43 (VDS 22) is a further PSSR return and takes place within the nominated Sensor Zone of Regard. [Note: Figure 43 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 11:38:31 (VDS 22) and a still color photo] Figure 44 illustrates a further PSSR response from debris (VDS 44) [Note: Figure 44 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 12:00:41 (VDS 44) and a still color photo. Figure 45 is a set of two FLIR frames recorded at 12:08:31 (VDS 50) and a still color photo] Event VDS 50 was alleged to be a Government weapon discharge of long duration. From examination of comparative imagery together with the FLIR trial results, it is apparent that the effect is a PSSR from the fallen window illustrated at Figure 45. The thermal event that takes place to the left of CEV-2 outside of the Gymnasium and illustrated at Figure 46 is a PSSR. In this instance the duration of the flash is also excessive for muzzle flash. It has also been alleged that the forward hatch of the CEV was opened at 12:08:12 and that a person emerged to take position and fire from the ground at 12:08:51 (VDS 52); this event illustrated in sequence below. As the CEV reverses from the gymnasium, the forward deck is in fact covered in debris, and it is this debris blowing in the wind that gives the appearance of a hatch opening. However, if the CEV is viewed on the FLIR until 12:10:36; it pauses next to the boat-trailer. The colour image clearly illustrates (large red arrow) the debris still in place over the forward deck of the CEV. [Note: Figure 46 is a set of four FLIR frames and a still color photo] The PSSR flash (Figure 47) evident on the Lean-to Roof (VDS 53) is the result of glass having fallen from the nearby window. The glass may have been blown out as a result of the fire. [Note: Figure 47 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 12:09:00]
As an adjunct to our work in analysing the FLIR imagery, VDS (UK) was also tasked to comment upon flashes, alleged to be gunfire, seen on two video films of a Government UH-1 helicopter and taken from a ground-based video camera. At Figure 48 we illustrate 2 un-timed optical video images, taken from a ground video camera, of a UH-1 helicopter in a near hover but beginning to lift and rotate to the left. A flash is seen emanating from the left cockpit side-screen area. [Note: Figure 48 is a set of two video frames] Figure 49 illustrates a helicopter of similar type flying slowly from left to right, without time data available to VDS (UK). Again, on this poor quality image, a flash emanates from the right cockpit side-screen area. This image was taken during the damping down operations after the main fire. {Figure 49 is a set of two video frames. Figure 50 is a video image of a helicopter w/ door open, in flight] Figure 50 illustrates a similar helicopter with rear crew compartment doors open, with weapon(s) mounted in rear crew compartment, as used by US military forces. The weapons are fired from the open door positions. The helicopters at Figure 48 and 49 both have the rear crew compartment door closed and the flashes seen are emanating from the forward left quarter and forward right quarter of the cockpit canopy respectively, and not from the area of the rear crew compartment. We therefore conclude that these flashes are further examples of solar reflection, this time in the visual waveband, and caused by sunlight instantaneously reflected at the video camera from the helicopter canopy side-screens. 11 ANALYSIS OF THE TIME OF THE START OF THE FIRE Master Event Serials 47,48, 49 & 55 VDS (UK) was tasked to report at what time the fire was first evident on FLIR tape 3. The outbreak of the fire on the FLIR is illustrated below. The FLIR was recorded by a circling aircraft, which did not provide continuous coverage of the whole compound all the time. Additionally, the FLIR would be unlikely to record smoke unless the smoke contained hot particulate. On the FLIR imagery there appears to be two separate, yet closely timed, outbreaks of fire. One occurred at the Red/White corner, and the other at the Cafeteria, illustrated in the diagram below. Our analysis is overleaf. [Note: diagram follows that illustrates the compound, w/ Vector.s assessment of the locations of fire outbreaks at 12:07:43 and at 12:08:26] 11.1 Red / White corner Figure 51 illustrates the first FLIR sighting assessed (VDS 47) as 12:07:43, when an ATR return is apparent through the White side window. By 12:09:23 the fire is well under way and obvious from the same window. [Note: Figure 51 is a set of two FLIR frames recorded at 12:07:42 and 12:09:23] The thermal return (VDS 48) on Figure 52 is the first indication of the presence of an ATR source within that room on the second floor. The illustration used for VDS 2 (VDS 2 was caused by a PSSR from debris at corner of building) is also included below to provide evidence of a similar return from the room underneath as early as 10:54:22. [Note: Figure 52 is a set of three FLIR frames] 11.2 Cafeteria Figure 53 illustrates a strong ATR at the Cafeteria (VDS 49) at 12:08:26. From the strength of the return, we consider it probable that this thermal signature would have been identified some time earlier, had the FLIR imaged that part of the building earlier. [Note: figure 53 is a FLIR frame recorded at 12:08:26] 11.3 Collapsed Walkway The first thermal evidence of fire in the collapsed Walkway area (VDS 55) is illustrated at Figure 54, starting at 12:10:21 with a rapid build of thermal activity. [Figure 54 is a series of two large FLIR frames and three smaller frames, all of VDS 55] 12 SIGHTING OF PERSONNEL The first sighting of personnel in any FLIR tape (Figure 55) occurs at 12:10:50 (VDS 56) when a person is observed prone of the White side roof. However, on the colour photograph which was probably taken at a slightly different time, he appears crouched on the roof. [Note: Figure 55 is a series of two large FLIR frames, one small FLIR frames recorded at 12:10 50 and 12:11:04 and an aerial still color photo. Figure 56 is a single FLIR frame] Figure 56 is produced in response to the charge that the Bradley MICV discharged gunfire towards the fire. Neither the direction of the flash (arrowed), nor its duration, supports this allegation. The flash is actually an ATR of the fire. Note how personnel (circled are clearly visible in the contrasting object/background scenario. [Note: Figure 57 is a single FLIR frame] Figure 57 provides a further example of personnel, in this instance standing on the tornado shelter. At this time, the object to background discrimination of the shelter roof enabled one person (red arrow) to be easily seen on the FLIR. The contrast is less obvious for other personnel (yellow arrow) standing at the edge of the shelter at that time. [Note: Figure 58 is a single FLIR frame recorded at 11:01:57:54 on March 19, 2000, during the Fort Hood FLIR test] The FLIR trial report (Figure 58) provides ample evidence of the ability of FLIR to discriminate people in a variety of combat clothing at lower ambient temperatures of 61° F – 67° F, and for cold thermal shadows to remain on the ground after those personnel had moved. However, the ambient temperatures on 19 Apr 93 was by now around 80° F, and yet personnel are still readily apparent on the FLIR. Their visibility on the FLIR imagery militates against any hypothesis that humans are less easy to see on FLIR in higher ambient temperatures, when body temperature and the ambient temperature are similar. On the other hand, there may be occasions of radiometric crossover when humans, and other objects, have the same radiant flux as their background. As a consequence, the sensor system is unable to distinguish between the two and the object disappears. However, it is important to recognise that this is a brief phenomenon. Comparative analysis before, during and after the radiometric crossover event negates the effect of this phenomenon. Therefore, had people been active on the ground earlier on 19 April 1993, when the ambient temperature was lower, they should have been apparent on the FLIR. 13 CONCLUSIONS 13:1. Background On 9 September 1999, the Attorney General of the United States of America appointed Senator John C. Danforth to investigate certain events that occurred at the Mt. Carmel Compound in Waco, Texas on 19 April 1993. Immediately after his appointment, Senator Danforth established the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) to carry out this investigation. On 2 December 1999, VDS (UK) was engaged by the OSC and the US District court for the Western District of Texas to review FLIR imagery taken by an FBI Night Stalker aircraft flying over Mount Carmel compound on19 April 1993. 13. 2 VDS (UK) Task VDS (UK) was tasked to determine:
13.3 Imagery examined by VDS (UK)
13.4 Master Event List In addition to 37 instances reported as gunfire-related incidents by Davidians. experts, VDS (UK) identified a further 20 instances of similar, but unreported, anomalous thermal activity on the FLIR tapes. These 57 incidents were tabulated and each incident was assessed individually. A review of ground video imagery of a Government helicopter in flight was also conducted. Although tasked only to determine whether Government forces fired weapons, we included a full analysis of possible Davidian gunfire for both completeness and comparative purposes. Detailed exploitation of the FLIR imagery, together with comparative analysis of the collateral imagery, and of muzzle flash and debris reflection identified during the FLIR trial, was undertaken at our facility at Peterborough, England over the period of 4 January to 5 May 2000. 13.5 Analysis The FLIR videos were viewed to observe individual frames and determine significant features of each thermal event, the fire and for sightings of personnel. A comparative assessment was undertaken and all of the available FLIR imagery was used, not only the frames finally selected for illustrations to this report. Collateral imagery (ground & air) was utilized in comparative analysis with the FLIR, using a variety of software and imagery exploitation techniques. Following the FLIR trial at Fort hood, we compared the results from that with our assessments in order to reach final conclusions. 13.6 Alleged Government Gunfire We were unable to identify any gunfire, either from Government forces or from Davidians, from either the FLIR or other collateral imagery available to us. We concluded that the thermal events and the alleged sighting of a person detailed in the Master Event List were all caused by either Passive Solar Specular Reflection or by Active Thermal Reflection; with the remainder due to falling and/or windblown debris. Each thermal event was described and attributed to the Master Event List and we provided our analysis of individual events together with illustrations to explain the causes of these thermal events. The supposed gunfire emanating from the helicopter was assessed to be visible light energy reflection from the helicopter cockpit canopy. 13.7 Time of the Fire Our determination of the first outbreak of fire indicated on the FLIR imagery was at 12:07:43 on the second floor of the Red/White corner. A further fire outbreak occurred at 12:08:26 at the cafeteria/kitchen entrance and we provided our analysis and illustrations of the outbreak of fire. 13.8 Personnel We concluded that throughout the morning of 19 April 1993, no persons were seen, on imagery available to us, until 12:10:50. After 12:10:50, numerous personnel (assumed to be Government personnel by their actions) attended the fire and were clearly visible on the FLIR, despite the relatively high ambient temperature. These personnel were also seen on collateral imagery. We provided our analysis and illustrations to support the analysis. 13:9 Authentication (signature) D.D. Oxley Peterborough 5 May 2000 (signature) N.M Evans Peterborough 5 May 2000 P. Ayres Peterborough 5 May 2000 13.10 Report Distribution Copies: Qty 1 The Honorable Judge W.S. Smith United States District Court for the Western District of Texas Waco Division Copies: Qty 5 plus 1 for further reproduction, as required Office of Special Counsel St. Louis Copies: Qty 1 Vector Data Systems (UK) Ltd ______________________________________________________________________- FOOTNOTES: 1 Caddell & Chapman - Indications of Gunfire or Heat Flashes on FLIR Tape 3- 20 Oct 99 supplemented by Edward Allard – Analysis of the April 19, 1993 WACO FLIR Videotapes, March 1, 2000. 2 Caddell & Chapman – Indications of Gunfire or Heat Flashes on FLIR Tape 3 – 20 Oct 99 supplemented by Edward Allard – Analysis of the April 19, 1993 WACO FLIR Videotapes, March 1, 2000. 3 US National Television Standards Commiteee (NTSC) video framing rate is 30 frames per second, 2 fields per frame. 4. Caddell & Chapman – Indications of Gunfire or Heat Flashes on FLIR Tape 3 – 20 Oct 99.
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